A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
